Page 16 - Issue-27

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HORIZONS OF THE GULF RECONCILIATION

YOUSSEF SHARAF, 3rd LEVEL, POLITICAL SCIENCE

“Ending the Gulf crisis with Qatar would be this year’s Christmas gift”,
This means that the commitment of the two sides, Saudi Arabia and
said the US ambassador to the UAE on Wednesday, December 16,
Qatar, stemmed from an understanding that aunited Gulf front will
2020. As Trump lives his last days in the White House, many analysts,
serve everyone more than spending millions of dollars trying to
whether Americans or from the Gulf, believe that the Gulf crisis is
undermine each other's positions.
living its final days after years of diplomatic crisis, which foreign
Nevertheless, these positive indicators do not give reason to be
mediation has failed to solve it. Indeed, since the beginning of
overly optimistic. First, despite the UAE ambassador to the United
December 2020, new horizons began to emerge for the Gulf crisis, as
States, Yousef Al-Otaiba’s statement, on December 8, 2020, about
official American and Gulf sources stated that Saudi Arabia and Qatar
the "seeds of progress" in resolving the blockade imposed by the
are about to reach a preliminary agreement. In this context, Saudi
Gulf states on Qatar, many doubt that the UAE is ready to reconcile
Foreign Minister Prince Bin Farhan expressed that he’s "somewhat
with Qatar, and this is what some former diplomats said to The
optimistic", and that they are about to conclude a satisfactory agreement
New York Times. In fact, during the past years, the UAE’s position
to all regional powers which occured in Al ula Agreement, after that
on Qatar has been tougher than the other countries, as it is the
tensions lasted for three years since June 2017; when Saudi Arabia, the
country that many regional experts describe as the “main player
UAE, Bahrain and Egypt imposed a land, sea and air blockade on Qatar
behind the blockade on Qatar”, for several reasons. Among the
for its support for terrorism and its proximity to the regional foe, Iran.
political ones, it’s Qatar's continued support for Islamists, led by the
So, in light of this positive climate of common understandings, will
Muslim Brotherhood, especially through its pioneering news outlet,
2021 be the post-Gulf crisis year?
Al-Jazeera, which not only supports political Islam, but also directs
We need to know first that the reconciliation path this time is
explicit criticism of the rest of Gulf monarchies.
characterized by the presence of the US guarantor, after Washington
Reasons are also extended on the personal level, which analysts
was convinced of its interest to play a guarantor role for any final
described as a dispute dating back to a “history of mutual jealousy
agreement binding on all parties, especially the Qataris, and this is to
and distrust”, rooted in old rivalries between the two ruling
avoid what happened between 2014 and 2017 when the paths of
families: Al Nahyan (the UAE) and Al Thani (Qatar). And this
negotiations and mediation failed to bridge the rift between the Quartet
dispute reached its climax when the UAE offered sanctuary for
countries and Qatar. Such role has become evident when the US
Prince Khalifa, who was deposed by his son, Hamad (Tamim's
President’s senior adviser, Jared Kushner, visited Riyadh and Doha at
father) in 1995, and attempted to restore his rule. Thus, in the midst
the beginning of December 2020 and met with the leaders of the two
of Abu Dhabi’s silence, a comprehensive solution in the Gulf
countries, who "affirmed their commitment" to reaching reconciliation,
remains elusive;
as the Emir of Kuwait, Sheikh Nawaf Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah stated, and
who is still representing the mediator role between the conflicting
countries. In addition, timing is an important factor in this new cycle of
reconciliation, which comes just weeks before the Biden administration
takes over in the United States, which puts tremendous pressure on
Saudi Arabia to demonstrate its goodwill as an important and essential
partner for the United States in the Middle East. Indeed, the United
States hopes to end this crisis that has hindered the US interests in the
region, empowered Iran, and isolated Qatar, which houses Al-Udeid Air
Base, the largest US military base in the Gulf region.
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