Page 5 - Issue-47

ELITE
Vol.1, Issue 47, September 2022 ELITE

Thus, indicative planning tools are completely This is due to the necessity of carrying out many
different from the other type. We actually find this in structural reforms, which are usually delayed in Egypt
any capitalist country, even if there is no ministry, and in many developing countries in general. For
institute or official agency for planning, but the example, we find that the Argentine State has so far
general plan of the state always exists, especially in not given up the support of the International Monetary
light of the broad concept of development, which is no Fund, because of the countries' rush to be satisfied
longer limited to economic indicators such as with the initial results of reform programs with the
investment and others, but also includes society, Fund without completing the necessary steps for
environment and sustainable development. Thus, the reform. After stability, the focus should be on
dimensions are multi-dimensional, intertwined, and improving the investment environment, supporting the
require planning. So the permanent link between productive and industrial sectors, reducing imports and
planning and socialism is a misconception and we increasing exports.
always try to fix it on more than one occasion and Therefore, the current crisis is summed up in the
highlight the importance of planning in the market exchange rate crisis and the decline in reserves, and
economy and its various tools such as: incentives and therefore negotiations are currently underway with the
the concept of the developmental state and support International Monetary Fund. However, despite the
sectors with competitive industrial advantage, so the current challenges, opportunities also exist. We now
state’s intervention is smart intervention. find, for example, that with the deterioration of the
title
Definitely the talk of the hour is the trend again exchange rate, our exports have become less expensive
and therefore more competitive. But the problem lies
towards floating the pound and borrowing from the in the fact that the positive effects of these
International Monetary Fund. How do you evaluate opportunities are medium or long-term, while the cost
this step and its consequences for the Egyptian is short-term, so we find the problem of inflation
economy? continues, and while the Central Bank seeks to contain
Of course, we have gone through this step several it by raising the interest rate, this negatively affects
times before. For any country to develop, there must
be a state of political and security stability. We can say investment, and this is of course the nature of the
economy.
that Egypt was able to restore this stability to a large
extent after the two revolutions. But the very important
next step is to achieve economic stability (financial
and monetary).
Any guarantee that the exchange rate, commodity
prices, interest and investment policies are stable as
well as tax policies. Hence, stability is the basis of any
development.
The problem we are currently facing is that crises and
periods of instability are becoming more and more
frequent. Of course, the idea of globalization has
contributed to this, as happened, for example, after the
Ukrainian crisis. Today, we see what is happening in
the global monetary market, the exchange rate,
commodity prices, value chains and supply chains, and
the changes and challenges that all of these processes
are witnessing. What makes the state able to be
satisfied with the support of the International
Monetary Fund as a start and to continue the process
without it later is the ability to carry out the necessary
structural reforms. We recall the time when the late The global economy suffers from several crises, the
President Mubarak in 1981 held an economic impact of which was increased by the Ukrainian
conference aimed at determining the path between crisis and the steps of the US Federal Reserve
openness and socialism. towards raising the interest rate and the subsequent
capital flight. How do you assess the scene of the
global economy and its outcomes?
As we know all the forecasts and reports show the
reality of the unfavorable global scene of the decline in
the growth rate and the general slowdown in the global
economy, and we certainly expect its impact on the
Suez Canal and tourism. The problem lies in the fact
that this slowdown is accompanied by inflation, which
is a state of stagflation, as we have learned in
economics. As for the interest rate hike by the US
Federal Reserve, it is expected and announced for
some time, and this was reflected in reducing liquidity
in addition to raising the cost of loans. Therefore, in
the coming period, we must focus on strengthening the
ability of Arab economies to withstand crises, by
strengthening the economy and increasing its capacity
for self-sufficiency, in addition to relying on the region
in what is known as regional value chains. These
Back present time rather than the idea of togetherness as it
chains are based on the exchange of interests at the
Back
was in the past. So opportunities lie in the midst of
To FEPS challenges, and this is where the value of planning and
To FEPS
To FEPS
expectations stand out.
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